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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.